Finding tipsters to follow isn’t hard at all nowadays. There’s no shortage of tipster websites, free to join Facebooks betting groups or loud people at Twitter who seem helpful enough to share their expertise and make you rich. The challenge is finding serious, honest tipsters that can actually help you make money and do it for a long time.
While it certainly doesn’t look like it at first glance, the truth is almost everyone loses money in sports betting, except for the bookmakers. Tipsters are no exception, so be ruthless in who you decide to follow.
Here are just a few tips (pun intended) to help you on the way.
Analyze their track record
Needless to say, a track record is absolutely and fundamentally a prerequisite to even start thinking about following someone’s advice. And by track record I don’t mean 1000 tweets summed up with “a 75% strike rate” or a random Google spreadsheet that leaves no guarantee that it couldn’t have been adjusted. Screen dumps from bookmaker accounts doesn’t count either.
I’m talking about letting a serious third party like Smart Betting Club verify your bets, or register and lock them all at Bettin.gs. All bets at Bettin.gs are public and locked bets can’t be altered once they are locked and registered.
How many bets that are needed depends on the odds, but for bets odds on (2.0 or 1/1) I’d recommend at least a couple of hundred, much rather a thousand. Yes, that’s right. 1000 bets to make sure it’s just not a string of lucky results, but actual skills, that are behind the results you’re seeing.
Analyze their credibility
You need to ask yourself why these people are selling their tips. If they are one of the very few that actually have found a flaw in the bookmaker’s models, why would they want to share that edge?
Valid reasons could be they don’t have the money to invest themselves, the bookies won’t allow them to bet as much as they’d like, or they just want to even out the volatility in their business by having a guaranteed flow of income on the side.
Invalid, but sadly very probable, reasons are usually that they are affiliated with a set of bookmakers and want you to lose as much as possible so they can get a share of those losses, or more likely they don’t have an edge at all so their only chance to make money is to charge for losing tips.
Analyze their style of play
Now, if you’ve found a tipster service that actually have a proven track record of winning bets, they seem legit and you want to have a closer look at what they have to offer, what would you look for?
Apart from the obvious, like what sport and language that is used, you should look closer at the following.
What are the odds and strike rate?
What odds ranges are being used? If it’s lower odds, you should be able to win less but more often, which means you’d need a smaller betting bank and the losing runs will be shorter. That might feel safe, but don’t expect your bankroll to grow too quickly.
Higher odds means winning more rarely, but more when you do – and hopefully more in the long run. Tipsters using higher odds obviously needs more bets to prove their worth, but could be worth it as the chances to find bigger value increases with the odds. On the other hand you’ll need a bigger betting bank to deal with bigger drawdowns and that psychological rollercoaster that it measn is definitely not for everyone.
What type of bets are advised?
Are the bets advised for someone to win, to lose, for amount of goals or something completely different? Is it win only or each way? Is it for games the same day or season bets/ante posts? Does this suit you? Do you have access to the bookies that offer these kinds of bets?
Is it possible to get the quoted odds?
It’s quite possible you find the best tipster on the Internet, but since he’s so good there’s so many following his tips that the odds disappear within seconds once the tips are released. It’s also possible, and more likely, that the quoted odds are the best one available and not a resonable odds to acquire. Make sure the odds advised are odds that are offered on the market!
Are they beating the market?
One way of analysing if they’ll be profitable is if they’re beating the closing odds more often than not. That is, are the advised odds better than the odds available when the event starts? Those odds are usually seen as the most correct.
There’s a feature att Bettin.gs that let’s you track this easily.
What are they basing their bets on?
Is it based on a computer based model, insider info or public knowledge? Is this important to you, or do you just want the odds and the selection?
How does their time schedule look?
You’re probably not doing this full time and probably not by your computer all day, every day either. Are the tips predictable and arriving on the same time every day or do you need to expect them to pop up at any given time? If so, how are you notified about this?
What’s the price?
There’s no guarantee that more expensive tipsters are better than free ones, but you obviously need to take into account what the price is. Do a simple budget and see if the stakes you can afford generates enough winnings with this service even with the tipster’s fee deducted. You’ll see many services value are eaten up quite quickly unless you have a serious betting bank to start with.
To keep track of all this info I would advise you to paper trade every single bet from the tipster services you want to follow. That means placing no money, or the smallest stake possible, to see if the tipster matches your wish list. Do this for a long time, until you feel certain this tipster fulfil all criteria and you feel comfortable investing your own money and following his advice (yes, it’s always a “him”).
Set up an account at Bettin.gs to do this – it doesn’t take more than a few seconds to sign up and a few more seconds to register all tips. You can then track all this info and get stats like strike rate, odds, drawdowns, ROI, how often he’s beating the closing odds and a lot more.